Título :	Probabilistic approach to transient unsaturated slope stability associated with precipitation event
Autor :	Costa, Katherin Rocio Cano Bezerra da Dantas, Ana Paola do Nascimento Cavalcante, André Luís Brasil Assis, André Pacheco de
metadata.dc.identifier.orcid:	https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4980-1450
metadata.dc.contributor.affiliation:	University of Brasília, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Brasília, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Brasília, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Brasília, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Assunto::	Estabilidade de encostas Solos não saturados Probabilidade de falha
Fecha de publicación :	25-oct-2023
Editorial :	MDPI AG
Citación :	COSTA, Katherin Rocio Cano Bezerra da et al. Probabilistic approach to transient unsaturated slope stability associated with precipitation event. Sustainability, [S. l.], v. 15, n. 21, 15260, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su152115260. Disponível em: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/21/15260. Acesso em: 24 ago 2026.
Abstract:	The massif rupture is not always reached under saturated conditions; therefore, the analysis of the unsaturated phenomenon is necessary in some cases. This study performed a probabilistic approach for unsaturated and transient conditions to understand the contribution of physical and hydraulic parameters involved in slope stability. The proposed slope stability model was based on the infinite slope method and a new unsaturated constitutive shear strength model proposed in 2021 by Cavalcante and Mascarenhas. The first-order second-moment method, which incorporated multiple stochastic variables, was used in the probabilistic analysis, allowing the incorporation of seven independent variables for the probability of failure analysis as well as for quantifying the contribution of the variables to the total variance of a factor of safety at any state of moisture. This implementation allows a more realistic estimative for the probability of failure, showing in a practical way the decrease and increase of the probability of failure during a rain event. The model provided promising results highlighting the need to migrate from deterministic analyses to more robust probabilistic analyses, considering the most significant number of stochastic variables. The proposed model helps to understand the influence of moisture content on slope stability, being a possible tool in natural disaster risk management.
metadata.dc.description.unidade:	Faculdade de Tecnologia (FT) Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental (FT ENC)
metadata.dc.description.ppg:	Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geotecnia
Licença::	This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/)
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.3390/su152115260
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