Título:	O preço invisível do desmatamento no Cerrado : uma estimativa a partir da perda de biomassa na região do Matopiba
Autor(es):	Aguiar, Briza da Silva
Orientador(es):	Baptista, Gustavo Macedo de Mello
Assunto:	Biomassa Matopiba (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí e Bahia) Mercado de carbono Sensoriamento remoto
Data de publicação:	29-Jun-2026
Data de defesa:	19-Dez-2025
Referência:	AGUIAR, Briza da Silva. O preço invisível do desmatamento no Cerrado: uma estimativa a partir da perda de biomassa na região do Matopiba. 2025. 98 f., il. Dissertação (Mestrado em Desenvolvimento Sustentável) — Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, 2025.
Abstract:	Climate change represents one of the main global challenges today. In this context, the carbon market is viewed as a potential solution for mitigating these emissions, although it faces persistent issues concerning regulation and transparency. The discussions held at COP 21 spurred the development of mechanisms and financial instruments linked to this market. Unlike other nations that are leaders in GHG emissions, where the majority originates from the burning of fossil fuels, in Brazil, currently the 6th globally, emissions primarily result from land use and land cover change, closely associated with agricultural and livestock activities. Among the productive areas, the Matopiba region (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia) stands out, with 91% of its area encompassed by the Cerrado biome. This region is considered the most active agricultural frontier in the country, while economically relevant, it is also the leading area for deforestation in the Cerrado and in Brazil. The present study aimed to calculate the carbon stock and carbon loss in the Matopiba region during the 2022–2024 period to assess its potential for generating carbon credits and to compare these values with the profitability of agricultural production. The ESA CCI (2022) database, which maps above-ground biomass using radar imagery, and MapBiomas data, processed on the Google Earth Engine platform, were utilized for this purpose. The results indicated that Matopiba held 11.595.526.193,35 tCO₂eq in 2022. The deforestation that occurred between 2022 and 2024 resulted in the emission of 175.687.660,58 tCO₂eq. The estimated price of this deforestation was R$ 10.849.522.618,34 (based on Embrapa’s agricultural credit estimate), in addition to R$ 22.944.808.471,74 in CPR-Verde titles and R$ 9.399.289.841,03 in REDD+ projects. Conversely, a simplified estimation showed that the region's main crops (soybeans, corn, and cotton) generated approximately R$ 51,3 billion in a single harvest. This valuation discrepancy suggests that the price paid per ton of CO₂eq in sequestration or emission reduction projects is generally too low for the Cerrado to compete with the profitability of agricultural activities. Considering the economic relevance of agribusiness, as well as the legal and historical context of the biome, the carbon discussion should not be framed as a factor for replacing agricultural production, nor should it be entirely dismissed, rather, the market may be effective if structured to subsidize the transition to sustainable practices within the region's productive areas
Unidade Acadêmica:	Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustentável (CDS)
Informações adicionais:	Dissertação (mestrado) — Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Sustentável, Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustentável, Universidade de Brasília, 2026.
Programa de pós-graduação:	Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Sustentável
Aparece nas coleções:	Teses, dissertações e produtos pós-doutorado

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